Publications

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Forecasting leads to adequate and comprehensive planning for sustainable development. A number of procedures are used to estimate, predict and forecast data, but not all are able to capture the historical path of the data generating process adequately. In view of this, the timeseries characteristics, structural changes and trend of inflation in Nigeria (1996-2022) were analyzed using ARMA, Holt-Winters, spline and other associated models. The results indicated that inflation in Nigeria has remained above acceptable limits in a cyclical trend during the period under study and that there is every possibility that Nigerian inflation would remain above 10% for some time to come. There were six shocks, the major stressors being food inflation, oil and gas prices and wages adjustment. For Nigeria to achieve a stable inflation rate regime of acceptable limits, a robust economic management and intelligence team using a global innovation platform as well as evidencedbased policies which ensure that Nigeria does not swerve away from the path to recovery should be established in consultation with the fiscal, monetary, and research authorities.

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The study analyzed factors that influence farmers' access to extension services in the study area. The study utilized data obtained from 483 farmers with the use of interview schedule questionnaire. The data were analyzed using vtree and Double hurdle regression model. The results revealed that 80% of the respondents are male with moderate adaptive capacity to climate change. In addition, farmers, with high adaptive capacity to climate change had higher level of education. Result of the double hurdle regression revealed that farmer’s adaptive capacity to climate change, being a male, farm income, non-farm income, being poor, availability of social amenities, membership of association and increase in the distance of farmer‘s farm from the village had significant positive influence of number of extension services received by farmers with contacts. While ratio of livelihood activities, farm size, age, level of education, distance of farm to market, credit, livestock ownership, household size and working household members had significant negative influence on number of extension services received by farmers with contact. Furthermore, result of the zero-contact revealed that the odds can be increased by adaptive capacity to climate change, farm size, gender, credit, household size, poverty status, availability of social amenities and membership of association. While ratio of livelihood activities, livestock ownership and farming experience can decrease extension contact. It was there for recommended that extension agents should assist in increasing the adaptive capacity of the farmers by incorporating more climate change related techniques and adaptation strategies in their services, availability of functional social amenities should be a major focus when formulating policies and developmental issues as it influences extension services and farmers should be encourage to form associations so as to achieve the benefits associated with it.

This study investigated factors affecting vulnerability to climate change and choice of livelihood of IFAD-VCDP farmers in Benue State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected through personal interviews from 240 sampled IFAD-VCDP farm households. The household vulnerability index and Beta regression model were used to analyze the data. The results of household vulnerability revealed that 4.58% of the households were lowly vulnerable to climate change, 36.67% were moderately vulnerable and 58.75% were highly vulnerable. The estimates of the Beta regression model revealed that adaptive capacity, years of formal education, farm income, non-farm income, credit use, total livestock unit, household size and total livelihood activity influence the farmers' vulnerability. IFAD-VCDP farmers were found to be vulnerable to climate change hence it was therefore recommended that government and NGOs should assist in increasing the adaptive capacity of the farmers by conducting campaign on climate change adaptation techniques, encourage the farmers to invest more in non-farm activities to serve as coping strategies and financial institutions should assist farmers with agricultural loan.

The study examined the ability to minimize cost and maximize income among women marketers participating in donor-assisted programmes in Lavun Local Government Area, Niger State. The specific objectives are to describe their demographic and institutional characteristics of the women marketers, examine the level and effectiveness of participation of the women in the programmes, determine the factors that promote cost minimization or income maximization and identify the constraints that hindered the women participation the programmes. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 100 women from three (3) districts (Gaba, Doko and Jima) in the study area. The data were generated through the use of questionnaire. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive and Ordinary Least Square regression model. The result of the findings revealed mean age of the women, farming experience, household size and year of school were 38, 12, 8 and 10 respectively. The mean income realized from marketing agricultural produce was NGN90,580.00, while mean cost incurred was NGN77,880.00. However, age, marital status, sale of provision, constraint not very serious and television as sources of information were the factors that promote minimize cost and maximize income among market women that participated in donor-assisted programmes. Constraints that hindered the market women participation in donor-assisted programme were marketing cost, illiteracy, inaccessibility, gender discrimination, non-availability, complexity, lack of awareness, lack of confidence and corruption. It was therefore recommended that market women should be encouraged to participate effectively in the programmes so as to increase their level of participation and also take the advantages associated with it. The market women should diversify their sources on income in to sales of provision in addition to agricultural marketing as it promotes income maximization. Government and NGOs should assist in providing marketing information through television as it influences income maximization positively.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a platform created to increase intra-trade and ease movement of persons and goods across borders within Africa as well as promote economic welfare and wellbeing of member states. Nigeria being a signatory, faces the question of what is that first step to be taken in order to enhance farmers income and promote positive welfare and impacts. Based on the optimisation of the multi-sector 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) using dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE), Nigeria is not a self-sufficient economy and the deficit to meet subsistence demands for goods and services is about NGN251T (USD69B) with the following sectors being the most deficient, namely, bananas and plantains, sorghum and millet, education, maize, pulses. The sectors that have exerted the greatest pull on the economy in terms of intermediate demand for goods and services are clothing, fruit and vegetable processing, petroleum products, dairy and textiles. However, coal and lignite, animal feed, sugarcane, wheat and barley, tobacco sectors have the most capacity to push the economy towards self-sufficiency. The results further revealed that there was welfare (equivalent variation) loss of about 5.02 utility levels below the optimum while the compensating variation, the income households are compensated with for changes in income to maintain the same level of welfare is -NGN3.8T (-USD10.5B), indicating that the households, particularly farmers, are subsidising the economy rather than being compensated for changes in prices. Therefore, the first step in the wake of the AfCFTA should be more emphasis on production and processing of goods and services for domestic consumption, which reduces imports bills put at NGN12T. It is recommended that emphasis should be to build the infrastructure for increased agricultural processing capacities about two-fold above the present rate thereby increasing the income accruing to farm and rural families by about 35% from the present NGN22B (USD63M).

Economic management is the rules, policies, procedures and skills deployed to manage the resources, finances, income, and expenditure of a community, business enterprise or a whole country. The major instruments of economic management are the fiscal and economic development policies normally outlined in the countries budget by the President. The failure to achieve the stated objectives in the fiscal and monetary policies are the major challenges faced by less developed and developing countries of the world. This is because of frequent fluctuations in macro-prices particularly interest, wage and exchange rates. The resultant effects of the movement of these prices are reflected in the inflation and the GDP growth rates which adversely affects agribusiness activities. In this study, the trend of the movement of monthly inflation rate between 1996 and 2020 in Nigeria was investigated. The data, which were obtained from the records of the Central bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics as well as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, were analyzed using descriptive statistics as well as cubic, spline and smoothing methods. The results, which showed Nigeria’s average inflation for the period under study to be 12.42%, was better managed during civilian administrations (with a mean of 11.8%) but was higher than most countries of the world. Among the smoothing methods, Holt-Winters predicted (1996-2020) and forecast (2020-2042) Nigerian inflation better than other methods with a mean forecast of 11.25. Among the presidents, the Goodluck Jonathan era witnessed the most stable inflation regime with a mean of 10.2%. The results further reveal that a stable inflation is capable of increasing agriculture GDP by 1.0885% yearly although only short-run dynamics is apparent. It is recommended that more technical skills rather than guesswork policies should be deployed by the government to better manage the inflationary trend so that Nigeria could return to single-digit inflation regime that was once achieved.

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The study analysed the efficiency of innovation uptake among cocoa farmers in Ondo State from a sample of 120 randomly selected cocoa farmers from two Local Government Areas of Ondo State. Budgeting technique was used to estimate adopters and non-adopters net farm income. Adopters of disseminated cocoa technologies made NGN 65,180.28 profit more than non-adopters. Stochastic frontier production function (SFPF) was used to analyse the technical efficiency of cocoa farmers. The estimated technical efficiency of the cocoa farmers ranged from 2.0% to 82.0% with a mean technical efficiency of 41% indicating that farmers operated sub-optimally and there was a 59% allowance for improving technical efficiency. The study further observed that age, educational status, membership of farmer’s organization, household size, and adoption status were major determinants of technical efficiency since these variables were found to be positively and significantly associated with technical efficiency. It was therefore recommended that farmers should be encouraged to join farmer’s organisations, there is need for government and other stakeholders to invest in extension services in sensitizing cocoa farmers of new innovations and the level of literacy of the farmers should be looked into when formulating policies as it increases farmers' technical efficiency.

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This study investigated the constraints to livelihood diversification among IFAD-VCDP farmers in Benue State, Nigeria. A two-stage sampling techniquewas employed in the selection of respondents. A total of 240 respondents were selected for this study. Descriptive statistics andprincipal component analysis (PCA) were the analytical tools engaged in this study.The study revealed that mean age and household size were 7 and 46 respectively.The PCA result revealed that the most severe constraints the farmers faced in livelihood diversification hierarchically were public and institutional constraint; educational and training constraint; climate and production constraint; trade, norms and religious believes constraint; and time and skilled labour constraint. It was therefore recommended that there is need for both the government and non-governmentorganizations to intensify efforts on public, institutional, educational and climate policies so as to increase livelihood opportunities in the study area.

Bearing in mind the long standing relations between Nigeria and India, a comparative analysis of their 2008 SAM was undertaken in order to assess the relative strength of each country. To do this, the forward and backward linkages of the economies obtained from the technical coefficients were compared. In spite of the fact that per capita GDP of Nigeria is higher than India, it was found that Nigeria’s GDP is dominated by import while that of India was dominated by private consumption expenditure. Nigeria’s economy is still import dependent while the export sector is dominated by primary products like yams and oil and gas, making Nigeria vulnerable to external shocks. There are also wide disparities between the domestic demand of goods between Nigeria and India. Nigeria must reduce the importation of capital goods and increase investment spending on the public sector services for up to 45% of that of India in order to be at the present welfare level of India .

This study was conducted in Niger State, Nigeria to analyze artisanal and cultured fish production in the state. The data for this study was collected using questionnaires and interview schedules from 100 and 80 randomly selected cultured fish farmers and artisanal fish farmers (fishermen) respectively. Descriptive and inferential statistics were mainly used for the analysis. The results of the study revealed that majority of the respondents (69.4%) were still in their active and productive age and a large proportion (75.6%) were married and a moderate household size of between 4-6 persons. Also majority (69.4%) had one form of education or the other. The result shows that majority of the respondents (53.33%) were on the extra-large (above 15,000fishes) scale of production and fish produced from artisanal fishing (mean=16377 fishes) was greater than the fish produced by cultured fish farming (14216 fishes). The result shows that marital status, age and years of fishing experience were significant socio-economic factors that affect the level of fish production. Fish productions were faced with many problems such as depletion of fish stocks for the artisanal production and poor source of fingerlings for the cultured production. It is recommended that Government and NGOs should train the fishermen on artisanal fishing to stop over-exploitation/indiscriminate catch of wild fish and also training on how to domesticate the wild catches so as to increase production.

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This study presents the results from a meso-inventory with a recall over 10 years of numbers of actors of different size strata in the fish value chain segments in Niger State, Northern Nigeria. It was conducted between March and July 2018. We explore the growth and changing structure of the fish value chain in the state. The 9 segments studied include hatcheries and feed mills (as inputs to the farmed fish segment), fish production (fish farmers and fishers), urban and rural wholesalers and retailers, and fish processors.

This study investigated the relationship between the share of agriculture in GDP and some socio-economic and climate variables using ARMA, ARDL and structural change estimation in R. The data, covering the period 1960-2016, were obtained from various secondary sources, including CBN, WDI, FAOSTAT and NiMet. The results indicated that Nigerian population is on a very rapid rise while GDP is showing a decline. The trend of the other variables included shows slow decline or rise. The forecast to 2030 and beyond shows that only population and aquaculture will continue to rise. However, lagged values of agricultural GDP, CO2 emission and the difference between maximum and minimum temperature significantly and positively affected GDP at 1% level while differences between maximum and minimum temperature significantly and negatively affected GDP at 5% level. In the short-term, population and L(coint) are negatively significant (p=0) while the difference between maximum and minimum temperature negatively affected share of agriculture in GDP at 1% level of significance. In the long-term, CO2 emission and population positively (p=0) affected the share of agriculture in GDP while arable land, cereal yield and aquaculture negatively (p=0) affected the share of agriculture in GDP determining four structural breaks in GDP since 1960. Although, the results implied mixed effects of climate change, it is important for Nigeria to critically look at the frequent changes in policy, negative effects of aquaculture on GDP which might be as a result of shift of mobile resources from main sector as well as the involvement of non-experts in formulating agricultural policies for Nigeria.

The study examined the profitability of maize/sorghum based cropping enterprises in Niger State, Nigeria. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed for selecting the respondents and data were collected using structured questionnaires from a total of 360 maize/sorghum based farming households sampled from nine Local Government Areas across the three agricultural zones of the State. Descriptive statistics and farm budgeting technique were used to analyze the data for the study. Results revealed that a typical maize/sorghum based crop farmer cultivated average of 2.36 hectares, with less than 10% of these planted with maize and sorghum as sole or mono-crops. The profitability analysis indicate that returns from sole maize cropping enterprise is the lowest but combinations of maize with other crops tends to yield higher returns. Across the State, NGN1.35, NGN1.58 and NGN1.31 was realized for every NGN1.00 invested in production of maize/sorghum cropping enterprises by farmers in Zone I, Zone II, Zone III of Niger State agricultural zones respectively. The net farm income/ha was NGN36,735.44 with an average gross margin/ha of NGN38,378.41 was realized by the maize/sorghum based farmers. The gross ratio of 0.44 and the operating ratio of 0.40 are indicators that maize/sorghum based cropping enterprises was profitable. The study recommended that farmers should be enlightened on the higher returns in investment and profitability of cultivating maize and sorghum in combination and with other crops through effective extension and farm advisory services to enhance farmers' incomes and livelihoods thereby curb the incidences of widespread hunger, unemployment and poverty.

The study estimates the profitability of arable crop production under the Goronyo Dam Irrigation Project. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to sample 246 farmers and the limited cost-route approach was used with the aid of questionnaire to collect relevant information. Farm budgeting technique was use to estimate costs and returns associated with arable crop production. The result of costs and returns estimates revealed mean gross margin per hectare of NGN69,245.86, NGN53,444.19, NGN11,911.11 and NGN82,308.83 for rice, maize, cowpea and tomato farms, respectively. The return on NGN invested was 0.61, 0.54, 0.53 and 1.40 for rice, maize, cowpea and tomato, respectively. Based on the values of return on investment obtained from the analysis, tomato production was more profitable. The result of cost efficiency estimation indicate that 1 per cent increase in the cost of labour input will increase the total cost of production by 0.44, 0.64, 0.43 and 0.21 per cent for rice, maize, cowpea and tomato farms, respectively. All the four major arable crop enterprises under the Goronyo dam irrigation project were profitable. Farmers should reduce their cost of production by using more cost saving technologies like improved planting material, agrochemical and tractor in order to increase the profitability of the various arable crop enterprises with the irrigation project.

The associated impacts of climate change affects availability of soil water, plant growth and productivity. Thus, understanding farmers' response and the factors influencing adaptation measures used will help in designing more appropriate coping strategies to the effect of climate change which was why this study was undertaken. Data for the study were obtained from primary source with the aid of structured questionnaire administered to 120 yam farmers from across Shiroro, Lapai and Wushishi LGAs in Niger State. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariate probit regression model. The results indicate that crop rotation, early planting of yam and mixed cropping were the most important adaptation measure used by the respondents with a mead adaptive capacity of 0.60. The most important variables affecting the choice of adaptation strategies are age, gender, household size, major occupation, farm size, educational level, farming experience, method of land ownership, farm income, membership of cooperatives/association, extension contact, access to climate change information, amount of credit access and farmers perception of climate change while it was found that some of the adaptation strategies were complementary and others were substitutive. It is recommended that continuous education and effective advisory services aimed at empowering the farmers and enhancing their capacity to choose appropriate climate change adaptation measures be instituted.

The objectives are to describe the socio-economic profiles of the respondents, determine level and prevalence of data manipulation among them, describe the various research reporting-related misconducts and determine whether there is any syndication of them and, describe the various challenges faced by the respondents in data collection and research reporting. A sample of 500 was randomly drawn from research personnel working in the various tertiary institutions in Nigeria. The data is being collected via questionnaire (Google form) administered through their emails. Data analysis is mainly descriptive but syndication was measured as the ratio of publications to the number of co-authors. Results show that 75% of the respondents are university workers out of which 83% are PhD holders and 42% are in the professorial cadre. The results further show that they have published an average of 68 papers in general but 46 academic papers and the ratio of papers to author (4.25) is quite high, suggesting some syndication among them. Most (50%) publish their papers without attaching raw data and only a few indicated that they could replicate the various research with the same results; this findings was further affirmed by more than 60% who say that they did not preserve the original data. Most of the respondents claim familiarity with common statistical software although majority do not analyse their own data but they have never failed plagiarism test. Majority (67%) claim that they have been mentored although 75% indicated that their various institutions do not have a formal mentoring programme. In terms of authoring, 42% indicated that they are always co-authors in their areas of specialisation but only 50% of them contributed to the research and drafting of the paper. In addition, 58% have never authored a publication with a non-Nigerian. The main constraint faced by majority is funding gap. The high rate of misconduct among the respondents was manifested in high paper/author ratio and lack of research integrity in preserving research data as well as co-authoring paper in other areas of specialisation. High premium should be placed on preservation of research data and funding research for national development.

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The dimension and determinants of poverty as well as the level of persistence in poverty among 540 small scale farmers in central Nigeria was investigated in this study. It was found that 88% of the farmers were classified as poor based on average nominal income of NGN 1 584,267.56 while 92% were classified poor based on per capita income of NGN98,444.26. The predicted poverty categories (PCs) of the respondents from MNL were 74% extremely poor, 21% moderately poor and 5% non-poor while DOGIT predicted 69%, 24% and 6% respectively which are quite different from the 67%, 25% and 8% respectively as specified by the data in contrast. These results indicated that the ordering of the respondents in the poor category is sensitive to the model employed and that poverty among the farmers is more deep-seated than the data suggest. There was no convergence in the estimation of the level of captivity which may be an indicator that captivity among the respondents was absolute indicating the possibility that the farmers are reluctant to imbibe poverty liberation technologies. Among the key policy variables affecting the probability of poverty among the farmers are their states of domicile, those in Mariga LGA 2 as against those from other LGAs, number of other dependents, the amount of agrochemicals applied to the farm plots, the quantity of planting materials, total size of farm plots, membership of farmers organisations, the major occupation, the amount of owner capital invested in the farm business and the amount of credit obtained in the farming season under investigation. However, their influence are not uniform across PCs, while some of the variables tended to accentuate the probability of the farmers being poor, others de-accentuate the probability. From the foregoing, strong persuasion is needed to make the farmers exit poverty and further poverty reduction strategies must be done by targeting the factors that accentuate the probability of the farmers remaining poor.

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The study focused on understanding the risk attitudes and strategies used by small scale farmers in managing negative farm related risks in Kaduna state as a case study. Structured questionnaires were used to collect relevant data from 150 small scale farmers in the study area and the respondents were randomly selected. Descriptive statistics, Attitudinal Scale Approach (ASA) and regression analysis were used for the data analysis. The results show that lack of technical know-how of improved farming technologies, livestock diseases outbreak and high cost of inputs are perceived mostrisky. The mean score and the standard deviation of all the statements are 3.0 and 1.066 respectively and 62.7% of the respondents were categorized among probable risk-averse individuals, while 34% of the respondents were categorized as risk preference individuals. Farm size, educational status and gross farm income affected the riskattitudes of the respondents. The management strategies used by the households include adoption of improved farming technologies, rain-fed and dry season farming, tractor fo rtillage operations, mixed cropping, planting profitable crops, participating in farmers' group/association, access to ADP extension agents and, government projects. It is recommended that the policies regarding improvement of irrigation infrastructure in the current agricultural transformation agenda should be strengthened so as to resolve all weather-dependent threats to agricultural production by small scale farmers.

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This study examined the factors that affect farm labour supply and utilisation for food crop production in Niger state, Nigeria. The data were collected from 180 participants of Fadama II in Katcha and Agaie LGAs and analysed using descriptive statistics and 2SLS regression model. The result shows that majority of the farm labour suppliers were within the ideal age distribution in the rural society of Africa and that family and hired labour are major source of the farm labour supply in the study area. Result from the 2SLS analysis confirm that variables such as income, migrated farm labour supplier, agro-chemical, household size, wage rate, farm size, and gender were statistically significant. However the level of farm/family income, high wage rate, age composition of family, lack of timely/adequate supply of labour and, aging of farm labour suppliers were identified as important constraints affecting farm labour supply and utilisation for food crop production. It is recommended that regulation of farm wage rate should be pursued in order to ensure that farm operations are carried in time at optimum cost.

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The study investigated the risk source and risk management practices among yam farmers in shiroro local government area of Niger State, Nigeria. A sample of 92 respondents was selected for the study through simple random sampling technique and data were collected using a structured questionnaire. It was found that a greater per cent of the respondent are faced with the problem of poor storage facilities, diseases, and poor market which makes them to adopt strategies like off-farm income generation, membership of association, and adoption of new technology. The study also reveals that soil management techniques, use of advanced storage facilities, membership of association, access to credit, and risk index were efficient with mean efficiency level of 0.842. The study recommends that infrastructural facilities such as good road network, and improved storage facilities. Extension programme should be improved on, and use of improved seedlings should be encouraged among farmers in the study area.

This study examined the dynamics of poverty and food security in using data obtained from a 2 staged sampling of 108 households in Minna Niger state. Data was analysed through the use of descriptive statistics, Food Security Index, Foster, Greer and Thorbecke and the ordinary least square regression. The result indicated that the household heads were mostly (98.1%) men that were married (78.7%). Also, the results revealed that the household had access to food 2 to 3 times daily and majority (67.6% and 84.3%)of the households were food secured and lived below the poverty line respectively. The regression results revealed that poverty in the study area was influenced by the food security status of the household P<.0.01, educational level P<.0.05 and working experience P<.0.1. The study therefore recommends that mass literacy programmes should be introduced and encouraged and also programmes targeted at reducing food insecurity and poverty should be intensified in order to further increase the number of people that are food secured and live above the poverty line.

The study investigated whether socio-cultural factors accentuate technical efficiency of yam farmers in Kogi State, Nigeria in addition to the socio-economic normally postulated. Primary data collected from 180 yam farmers randomly selected from three local government areas, one from each of the socio-cultural group of the State was used. Results indicated that there is more number of socio-cultural factors that determine the level of technical efficiency of yam farmers than the socio-economic. The results further show that male farmers are more affected by socio-cultural factors than female. In addition, the Okuns seems to be more affected while the Igalas were least affected. However, some of the socio-cultural practices are shrouded in some form of secrecy and research effort should be geared towards empirical understanding of their operation. Yam farmers should be provided with more comprehensive and adequate extension support to manage their farms in line with modern and improved production technologies, rather than basing their production decisions on factors alien to modern agricultural production.

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The study examined resource productivity analysis of small scale root and tuber crop farmers in Niger State, Nigeria. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source using a multi-stage sampling technique with structured questionnaires administered to 150 randomly selected root and tuber crop farmers from the study area. Descriptive statistics such as means, standard deviations, frequency distribution table and percentages were used to summarize the variables used in the analysis while data envelopment analysis was used to empirically determine the resource productivity in the study area. The DEA result on the overall technical efficiency of the farmers showed that 6% of the sampled root and tuber crop farmers in the study area were operating at frontier and optimum level of production with mean technical efficiency of 1.00. Decomposition of technical efficiency also showed mean efficiency scores of 0.25 and 0.32 for overall technical efficiency and scale efficiency respectively meaning that, on average, the sampled farms were more scale efficient than they are technically efficient. The study further revealed that most of the farms could reduce total expenditures on the farm land, labour, planting material, agrochemical, fertilizer and capital inputs by 8.17%, 5.17%, 29.53%, 23.71%, 0.09% and 10.08%, respectively without reducing their current level of production. The study therefore recommended that root and tuber crop farmers in the study area should form cooperative societies so as to enable them have access to productive inputs that will enable them expand. This will as well increase efficiency of resource utilization. Also, since few farms were robustly efficient, the farmers in the study area, enhanced research, extension delivery and farm advisory services should be put in place for farmers to learn the best farm practices carried out on the robustly efficient farms. This will go a long way to increase the efficiency level of the farmers in the study area.

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The study investigated the knowledge levels of orphan crops among farmers in Kwara State, Nigeria using primary data collected from 80 farmers randomly selected from Edu Local Government Area of Kwara State, Nigeria. It was found that farmers are generally aware of them but are not much involved in their production. The alternative use of cassava for ethanol production has the potential to reduce the number of poor farmers from 55% to 47% based on 50% of the mean of gross income or from 90% to 57.5% based on $1/day. The farmers should be encouraged to engage in the production of these orphan crops for their alternative uses as a quick fix for poverty.

The study focuses on reviewing the marketing policies with the specific interest in comparing the price of cocoa during marketing board era with that of the post-marketing board era. The study objectives include to examine the prevailing economic situations; comparing the producer and consumer prices during the two eras; and evaluate the effect of the two marketing board eras on cocoa production. Time series data for the period 1966 to 2009, were sourced from Cocoa Research Institute, Ibadan, FAOSTAT and Annual Bulletin of Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics, Trend analysis and Co-integration Analysis were used to analyse the data. The result revealed that that there is trend in the cocoa production during the marketing board era as compared to the post-marketing board era. This is attributed to the increase in the prices experienced in post marketing board era. The study also established that during the marketing board era, prices and marketing margins affected the production of cocoa. The marketing board era had positive impact on the cocoa production although the trend analysis revealed the post marketing era has higher production. Thus the study recommends that Government and cocoa farmers should learn from the price stabilization mechanism of marketing board era. The government should move away from direct involvement in running the economy such as the marketing of cocoa.

This study investigated the extent to which microfinance services reach women and its impact on the self-employed. The study also examined the institutional environment in which MFIs function and identity the characteristics of MFIs which enhance their ability to contribute to poverty reduction of women client. The primary data was obtained through a structured questionnaire administered to 75 respondents in the area. Similarly 15 MFIs were also selected and data collected from their managers. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and regression. The results of the analysis show that most of the respondents were married (82.67%) and had acquired some education (82.66%). Further analysis of the results shows that the size of the loan benefitted by respondents ranges from N31,000 – N50,000 however, only 13% of the clients obtain a loan of N100,000.00 and above. In addition the loan facility had positive impact on the businesses of the client. Many of them that are farmers no longer have to purchase inputs on credits or go into forced selling of their products, and this has improved their income status as well as their standard of living. It was therefore recommended that more MFIs be established in the area with more capital (funds) provided to enable them expand their loan facility and target more women clients.

This study investigated the Meta factors that accentuate farm size over a nine year period (2003-2011) using data obtained from final year projects report in Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension Technology, Federal University of Technology, Minna. The model was estimated through OLS on four functional forms. The result indicated that the variation of farm size was not adequately captured by the model although studies conducted in Zone 1 of Niger State and average farm income were found to give a higher and significant increase in farm size while data year and number of observations used in the base research are found to reduce farm size significantly. Farmers in other zones of Niger State as well as other parts of Nigeria should strive towards larger farm size and move towards commercialisation.

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This study was undertaken to determine the input-output analysis of palm fruit processing by small scale processors in Aguata Area of Anambra State. In order to obtain the data for this research, 10 processors each from six villages that are involved in oil palm processing on a fairly large number of the population were purposively selected. Descriptive statistics such as mean, median and mode were used to describe the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents as wells as constraints. The profitability of the oil processing business was determined using the net farm income model. The level of efficiency of the various resources use in the palm fruit processing business were determined using the Average Physical Products method and regression model was used to determine the factors affecting palm oil output. The results obtained clearly indicated that the palm fruit processing activity is profitable (profit of 654,479.18) with GR of 0.87059619, VR of 0.788342412 and FR of 0.082253778. It s advocated that efforts should be made to ensure constant power for the processing enterprises while the processors are encouraged to form co-operatives to enable easy access to credit.

The study analysed the determinants of credit procurement procedures and farmers income in Minna Metropolis, Niger State. A total of 90 farmers were randomly sampled from six villages around Minna Metropolis. A structured questionnaire was use to obtain data from the respondents in the study area. Probit and multiple regressions were used to determine the relationship between farmers' socio economics factors and awareness of credit procurement and examine the effect of credit on the income of the farmers. The result of the study indicates that while household size and the amount of credit taken were positive socio-economic variables, Age, marital status and farm size negatively affected the awareness of procurement procedures. In addition, farm size, quantity of fertilizer and credit positively influenced gross income from agricultural produce. These imply that the motivating factors behind farmers seeking knowledge about availability of and applying for credit are not only economic though farmers who acquired and utilized credit for agricultural purposes had larger income. In view of this, farmers must be educated that farming is a business and that family, cultural and social obligations must be separated from the farm enterprise.

The study examined credit acquisition and utilization by farmers in Minna Metropolis by administering structured questionnaire to 90 farmers were randomly sampled from six villages. The data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics. The results indicates that the mean loan procured was N100,000 while only N23,166.50 was utilised on agricultural activities and N348,939.70 was utilised on non-farm activities. It is recommended that the credit agencies should make advisory services on loan procurement and utilization part of the procurement procedures and monitoring of utilization should be intensified. Also mobile units should be established to bring banking services nearer to the farmers and farmers should be adequately educated on the terms of the loan before disbursement which should be done early enough, not later than April each year.

The study examined the constraints faced by yam farmers in Yagba West Local Government Area of Kogi State. Data were collected with the aid of a structured questionnaire from eighty (80) randomly selected yam farmers in 4 communities and analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square. The result showed that the respondents within the age bracket 41-50 years constituted 41.25% while majority (86.25%) are male. Furthermore respondents with farming experience above ten (10) years were 87.5%. The study also revealed that majority (75%) had one form of education or the other. The mean or the average farm size of the farmers was 0.687 and majority (90%) grows mainly white variety of yam. The results shows a positive relationships between the out and the following constraints faced by the farmers in the study area at 1% significantlevel, access to loan, High cost of inputs, poor soil fertility, transportation, pest and diseases, environmental factors, lack of infrastructural facilities, livestock destruction, problem of acquiring motherseed. In addition to the constraints identified above majority (88.75%) of the respondents claimed they don’t have access to extension services which will aid in alleviating their problems. It was recommended that adequate extension services and focusing intervention programme in the study area to solving the identified problems e.g. provision of credit and infrastructural facilities and provision of inputs at subsidized rate.

This study examined the attitude and constraints of small scale farmers in Paikoro Local Government Area towards agricultural insurance-taking in the past and their willingness in the future. The data collected from 75 farmers, were analysed using descriptive statistics and chi-square. The findings indicate that about 65% of the respondents had more than 5 years of farming experience, a good development but which has made the respondents to abandon education at secondary level. It was also found that most of the farmers (84%) did not insure their farms with NAIC voluntarily. About 60% of the farmers claim ignorance as the constraints to insurance-taking, a situation which was likely attributable to the low level of education of the respondents. It was also found that the extent of awareness is a very important factor to successful insurance-taking. It is recommended that stakeholder sessions on confidence building on agricultural insurance as well as sensitizing the respondents of the benefits of well-educated farming population be undertaken. It is also recommended that farmers should be merged to 20-30ha for economy of scale. There is also need to establish a continuing education system to assist in transformation from traditional to commercial level, making insurance-taking imperative.

The study was undertaken to estimate the growth trend in sugarcane production. The exponential model was applied to estimate the trend in production. Secondary data was obtained for the period of production on sugarcane from 1980-2007. The results revealed that sugarcane production had an instantaneous growth rate of 2.08% and a compound growth rate of 2.10%. The growth rate reveals is further confirmed by the signs of acceleration in growth from the results computed. However the results revealed a doubling time of 32 years for sugarcane production to double its current trend. The study therefore suggests the implementation and strong revolve of the of the Federal Government’s agricultural commercialization efforts to focus on availability and timely supplies of resources, to boost optimum production and also the establishment of small scale sugar processing plants which serves as outlets for the produced sugarcanes used as raw materials for sugar production.

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This study investigated the willingness of maize farmers to adopt improved maize technologies. The findings indicate that farmers show willingness to adopt technologies that are similar to their traditional practice. Farmers must be properly informed of the benefits of extension services and extension agents must be well trained and motivated as extension services become demand-driven.

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The possibility of the type of spline function and joint points selected affecting the consistency of the ex-post and ex-ante forecasts were tested using cereal production (1961-2006) and percent contribution of agriculture to GDP (1961-2004) in Nigeria. Three types of model, that is, Linear-Quadratic-Linear, Quadratic-Quadratic-Linear and Linear-Quadratic-Quadratic, were used. The result indicated that there is no universality as to which model is appropriate, rather all possible models should be tried and the one that gives most consistent result when compared to observed data and other factors should be used.

This study investigated the factors affecting loan acquisition among farmers in Otukpo LGA of Benue State of Nigeria. Primary data collected directly from the farmers were utilised in this study and analysed using descriptive statistics and probit analysis. The findings indicate that the loan collected during the 2006/2007 farming season was significantly lower (1000 times lower) that the amount of money spent on family obligations. This brings to the front burner the issue of food security and income stability of the small scale farmers. It has been discovered that many small scale farmers tend to sell off their farm produce when prices are low in order to repay social-obligated loans and also meet up some social obligations. Among the explanatory variables, interest rate charged and collateral given positively influenced loan acquisition while response to loan conditions impacted negatively on it. This findings indicates that farmers are favourable disposed towards taken loan with interest and given of collateral and this is contrary to what many researchers have tended to postulate.

The effect of the acquisition of farmlands on the socio-economic structure and income distribution among farmers in Edu Local Government Area of Kwara State, Nigeria was studied. The results indicate that all the farmers were male at an average age of 43 years. It was also noted that the amount of compensation paid to the farmers was far less that what the farmers expected and this has contributed to rising income inequality among them. It was advocated that farmers should be involved in all the processes leading to acquisition of their lands. In addition, confident building measures and collaboration will help the farmers benefit positively when their lands are acquired for whatever purpose.

This study was carried out to determine the effect of fertilizer and some socio-economic factors on total output of yam in Kabba Bunu Local Government Area of Kogi State, Nigeria during the 2005/2006 farming season. To achieve this aim, a structured questionnaire was administered to sixty (60) randomly selected farmers out of which six (6) were returned unfilled. Results obtained shows that fertilizer has no significant effect on the output of Yam. This may be due to a combination of high cost and lack of adequate financial power to purchase optimum amount needed to affect yam output. However, farm size, age, credit and family size are found to have significant effect on the output of Yam. It is recommended that farmers should be adequately empowered to purchase enough fertilizer in order to ensure optimum and sustainable yam production and meet up with the millennium development goals of eliminating hunger and extreme poverty.

The effect of changes in the marketing system and oil economy in Nigeria on sorghum output, acreage and yield between 1961 and 2005 was investigated. The result shows that there are signs of both growth and retardation during the periods under study. The average rates of growth were 1.58% for output, 1.42% for acreage and -0.16% for yield translating to doubling time of 25 years for output, five years for acreage and 13 years for yield. Acceleration, stagnation and deceleration were also observed at different sub-periods for the variables. It was indicated that sorghum technology must grow at a rate that will ensure food security for Nigeria not later than 2015.

Cointegration and the associated error correction model were used to investigate the effect of farm gate price and farm wage rate on sorghum hectarage in Nigeria between 1961 and 2004. The result shows that sorghum hectarage was well cointegrated with the two variables while the two variables are not. Long run relationship exists between sorghum hectarage and its own price but not with farm wage rate. There was granger causality between hectarage and the variables but there was no feedback. Policy prescription is needed to correct for temporary distortion in the sorghum market, particularly to ensure that sorghum hectarage continues to rise and hence supply, as the market forces alone was unable to correct it. It is also recommended that farm wage must be made more attractive so that the supply will reduce rate..

This study examined the time series properties of sorghum and millet hectarage as well as consumer price index and rainfall between 1961 and 2004 and found that they are I(1) and exhibited random walk without drift. It was also found that sorghum is cointegrated with millet only when some other explanatory variables are included in the cointegrating equation and also has long run relationship as exhibited by the disequilibrium term. There was no evidence of granger causality either between sorghum and millet or between sorghum and its lagged values. Result also indicated a very low level of technical change in sorghum economy. The policy implications of these have been highlighted.

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This study examined the movement of prices among and between selected food grains in selected markets of Niger State covering a period of 1980-1998. It was found that prices reach their peak during the third quarter and gradually slide downward in the fourth and first quarters. It was also observed that rural prices are generally higher than urban prices. Annual rise in prices was more rapid from around 1988. It was also observed that there was no competition among the food grains. The findings indicated that the grains market was not insulated from the shocks of changes in the macro-economic level. It is advocated that efforts must be made by all stakeholders in the sector to look to means by which price stability would be maintained in the agricultural produce market.

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The structural characteristic of income is a very important index of development, for it indicates how evenly (or otherwise) income is distributed among a set of people in focus. Policies, programs and projects are put in place to redistribute income and promote higher food production and greater food security. One of such programs is the community banking system. A study was conducted to determine the distribution of income among borrowers and non-borrowers of Bejin-Doko Community Bank. Forty-one borrowers and 49 non-borrowers were interviewed using structured questionnaire. The data was analysed using means, percentages and Gini coefficient. Results show that income is not evenly distributed both among borrowers and non-borrowers. A major policy direction has been advocated in the paper.

An investigation was carried out among small-scale farmers in the Niger inland valley of Niger State to examine the factors affecting the variation in income. The objectives were to examine the factors and the nature of their influence. Structured questionnaire was used to collect the data from the respondents who were stratified as borrowers and non-borrowers of Bejin-Doko Community Bank (Nig.) Ltd, Doko during the 1995/96 farming season. The data collected were analysed using regression techniques. Among the important factors identified and examined were farm size, number of livestock, family labour, hired machinery and whether the non-borrower has account with the bank or not. All these factors were significantly different from zero although some had decreasing relationship, contrary to expectation. The major policy direction drawn was for an increased emphasis on livestock production because of its low maintenance cost and higher returns. Also, the need to adequately fund non-formal rural financial institutions, instead of modernising them, was stressed.

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Common econometric models used for estimation were used to estimate models for forecasting world sorghum. Results show that the semilog model gave the best result followed by linear model. The growth or exponential model gave the poorest result. In addition, it was discovered that there is no loss of generality in the estimation with or without trend, although, for forecasting purposes, it was retained. The result can easily be extended to other crops and services.

Agricultural planning involves the act of estimating future costs and expected returns if production is undertaken while asset control is the process of determining the economic value of the farm’s assets and liabilities in order to justify their continued ownership or otherwise. These two processes are necessary in order to ensure that the farm business makes profit and remains in business for a long time. They also aid executive decision-making and are invaluable in any farm business organization because they are attributes of financial success. Agricultural production, unlike manufacturing, takes time for benefits to be reaped and any mistake may lead to total failure hence there is need to make proper plan and take adequate control measures. Also, adequate control of farm assets or liabilities is needed to prepare final accounts (balance sheet and profit and loss accounts). There are many planning and control tools, but each has its assumption and limitations. One of the versatile tools used in agricultural planning and which is consistent with the small scale farming nature of Nigeria is LINEAR PROGRAMMING, while one of the key control technique for farm assets is proper asset management through continuous depreciation and revaluation. Because of the tedious nature of the calculations involved in planning and control, there is need to have a device that can assist. The device is also needed in order to improve efficiency and accuracy. This forms the basis for this paper. This paper reports on two computer programs written in BASIC, which can aid in carrying out farm planning and effective control. The programs have been tested on standardized data and are currently running on a Microsystem. The sample runs are provided in the appendix.

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Regression analysis is one of the commonest analytical tool for carrying out multivariate data analysis in agricultural economic and social research. It involves estimating parameters, computing F-ratio for the analysis of variance for the model and t-values for individual parameters, calculating efficiency indicators of the parameters like the marginal physical product (MPP) etc. Although there are packaged programs for performing the regression analysis, none is particularly suited for agricultural economics research. The packaged programs are also difficult to use by non-programmers and the cost of acquisition tend to be high for most researchers and students of economics. Therefore their use is limited to programming specialists and a few that can afford the acquisition cost. There is therefore, the need to develop a program specifically for agricultural economics, that is more user-friendly and affordable for the average user. The objective of this paper is to report on a regression software developed in BASIC which meets the above constraints. The program allows for the estimation of a linear simple or multiple regression parameters for ten functional models, calculates the means (arithmetic, geometric and harmonic), variance and coefficient of variation. It also calculates the MPP and performs stepwise linear correlation and principal components coefficients of the variables. The program has been tested on standardised data and the output of the program compares favourably with that of packaged programs. It is presently running on a Microsystems.

Investigations were carried out to evaluate the profitability of using neem seed extract (NSE) to control cowpea pest at Bida (9.06N and 5.59E) during the 1994 and 1995 cropping seasons. The results obtained were compared with the performance of a conventional agrochemical-nuvacron. Results obtained 1995 show that there were significant difference between the yields obtained from the two control methods at 5% level of significance. Also 3.33% w/v of NSE and 0.2% v/v of nuvacron gave best yields of 712.60 kg/ha and 1165 kg/ha respectively. These results translate to gross margin of N10,993.19 and N19,637.99 respectively. Similar results were obtained during the 1996 cropping season.

The possibility of embarking on small scale production of Zobo drink to enhance family income is discussed in this paper. The paper highlights that an annual gross income of between N374,400 and N1,560,000.00 is possible with an expected gross margin of between N158,184 and N839,280. The total initial capital required to commence production is N33,750.00. This shows that Zobo production is highly profitable and can easily enhance family income.

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This BASIC program is capable of analysing any project as well as performing sensitivity analysis on cost overrun, benefit shortfall and delay in implementation. The analyses involves determining benefit-cost ratio, net present worth, net benefit-investment ratio, internal rate of return and switching values. The program is currently running on a microsystems and can run on all IBM machines or compatible with enhanced graphic adapter on which any of the dialect of BASIC is installed. The main program and sample runs are provided.

The program is written in BASIC and prepares the Net Worth Statement (balance sheet) of a farm or any business organisation. It also determines the various capital ratios that could be used to check the solvency of the business based on the data provided. The hardware required for this program is an IBM PC or compatible with an enhanced graphic adapter. There must be at least five kilobytes of memory space for loading and running the program. The program is currently running on a microcomputer. The main program and sample run are provided.

Investigations were carried out to evaluate the profitability of an alternative method of pest control - neem seed extract (NSE) at Bida (9.06N and 5.59E) during the 1994 and 1995 cropping seasons. The results obtained were compared with the performance of a conventional agrochemical-nuvacron. Results obtained show that there were significant difference between the yields obtained from the two control methods at 5% level of significance. Also 3.33% w/v of NSE and 0.2% v/v of nuvacron gave best yields of 712.60 kg/ha and 1165 kg/ha respectively. These results translate to gross margin of N10,993.19 and N19,637.99 respectively. It is recommended that each farm family should own at least one neem tree.

This paper reports on a simple software developed in BASIC language to aid Farm Managers in diagonosis of farm problems with aid of a computer. The program can be run on all IBM machines or compactibles. Although written in BASIC, it can be translated into FORTRAN if and when needed. The main program, the flowchart and sample run are provided.

This study examined the socio-economic characteristics of farmers in Pati, Lavun Local Government Area of Niger State. Questionnaires were administered to 38 farmers randomly selected from the nine villages to generate the data. The data was analysed using means, percentages, frequency distribution and charts. The major findings indicate that the average age of the household heads sampled is 48 years with a family size of seven. The household heads were all farmers with an average farm size of 2.16ha held in three or four fragments around the settlements; but some of them have some non-farm occupations in addition. The farms are located within an average distance of 2.482km and takes about 0.69 hours to trek from house to the farm thus giving an average speed of 3.60km/hr. It was also found that family labour is utilised more on nearby farms while hired labour ten to be utilised on far away farms. It is suggested that farmers should have access to land as much as required at one location.

This exploratory research was carried out with the objective of identifying the major reasons advanced by farmers for choosing among a host of crops which one to cultivate. The method of disposal was also studied. The data, which was collected using structured questionnaire, was analysed using Tables, percentages and chi-square. The findings indicated that out of the eighteen different crops being cultivated in this community as at the time of the survey, sorghum seems to be the most popular. The choice hierarchy indicated that food security was a major objective among these farmers. The implications of these findings were adequately discussed.